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Gaming Analyst Says Revolution Will Take Lead in 2010


Shinmaru
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The source for this is GameSpot, by the way. You can check out the article on there if you wish.

[quote][b]Analyst: Revolution will take lead in 2010

Surprise prediction from analyst Thomas Runte touts Nintendo's console as winner of next-gen war by next decade.[/b]

APRIL 1--In the world of underdogs, few are getting as little as respect as Nintendo's upcoming console, code-named Revolution. An overwhelming majority of industry analysts have stated that the favorite to win the next-gen console battle will be the PlayStation 3, with the remaining experts saying that Microsoft's Xbox 360 will take advantage of its head start to market, making it tough to beat.

However, Thomas Runte, a self-proclaimed analyst who frequents message boards under the handle "Miyamoto_Mojo", thinks differently.

"We expect Nintendo's Revolution, based on its price and immense catalog of downloadable games, to be the market leader by 2010," Runte told GameSpot News. "Nintendo is going to be one heck of a competitor for the gaming pie, and from the looks of it, I think they are going to get a rather huge slice."

Runte sees the ongoing concern over prices of consoles and games as the major factor in his analysis. The Revolution is almost guaranteed to be the cheapest console when its hits the market, with some projections going as low as $199 for the system.

"Sony and Microsoft will have game development costs much higher than that of the Revolution. The higher costs to develop for [the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360] will be passed on to consumers. This isn't the case with Nintendo's Revolution," said Runte. "I wouldn't be surprised if its games, first- and third-party, were $39, or even cheaper. If you had the choice to pay $40 or $60 for a game, which would you choose? Nintendo is rocking the game industry. They've got the right idea. Soon their superior strategy will pull them ahead."

Innovation is also a key selling point for the console says Runte. The console's controller, which is shaped like a TV remote, uses motion-sensors to effectively simulate swinging a sword, casting a fishing line, or shooting a gun.

"I've heard about the controller and some of the projects that Nintendo is working on. It's really very impressive and should tap heavily into the non-gaming market. The possibilities [with the controller] are almost limitless, and I heard from a source that there are already early builds of the Revolution's handwriting-recognition technology. Gamers will eventually use the controller to 'write' answers, allowing Nintendo to bring its popular Brain Training games to the Rev. That'll definitely move systems in Japan. [Nintendo president Satoru] Iwata is a genius--pure and simple."

Runte also thinks that timing favors Nintendo. The Revolution will be able to play games from Nintendo's older consoles, the Sega Genesis, and Hudson's Turbo Grafx 16.

"Remember, today's gamers grew up playing Mario Bros. and Zelda, some of the best games of all time. They're out there now as the industry's main consumers. The ability to play thousands of games, all priced in the five-dollar range, without leaving the house is very attractive. Gamers don't want to buy a PS3. They prefer a good system with nostalgia over a system with prettier graphics. Games are meant to be one thing--fun."

Runte says it's not only that Nintendo has "superior strategy" and is "totally awesome," it's Nintendo's rivals' weaknesses that give the Revolution the advantage. He dismisses the competition as a non-factor, and had particularly harsh words for Sony.

"Sony has yet to come out of the pit stop after the first lap. Folks, when this race started naysayers said Nintendo would not have enough under the engine to compete with Microsoft and Sony. Trying to one up Nintendo like they did with them wanting to make a Revolution-style controller after it was revealed and 'oooohed' and 'aaaahed' over... Sony won't let anyone else have time in the light. Down with Sony. I am going to take a bat to my PS2. Nintendo is back in a big way, I think Nintendo will own them all. I believe they are on the path to domination once again. I think they finally are giving people what they want, and continuing to give them things they never thought of."

Runte wasn't done touting Nintendo's future after the phone conversation with GameSpot News. In a follow-up e-mail, he wrote "OMG!!! Zelda on teh DS roolz!!!11!1!!1!1 Chrono Trigger downloadable? :) Nintendo >>>>> M$ and Sony. They don't stand a chance! W00t!"

One pro-Sony analyst, who wished only to be known as "Devil_Dante420," responded to Runte's comments. He told GameSpot News, "Whatever. Runte is such a noob. The PS3's graphics are far superior to the Revolution games. Gamers are getting older, they want a machine that caters to an older, mature audience. Zelda is like totally lame. Final Fantasy, now that's a series that can carry a console."

Steve "4Runner" Downes, another self-proclaimed "analyst," is still sticking with his original projection that the Xbox 360 will dominate the next generation. "The Xbox 360 is just better than the lame PS3 and Revolution. I don't care that they're not even out yet, the 360 is just better. Just watch noobz, the world will stop when Halo 3 is released. [Sony and Nintendo] should just give up now."[/quote]

I think that Runte makes an eloquent argument, but Downes brings up some good points as well. Devil_Dante420 is just an idiot, however. Just the same old crap we've been hearing from Sony fanboys for ages. Jesus, you'd think they'd give it a ******* rest already, but no. It's pathetic, really.

So, what's everybody else's opinion on this? :)
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[color=#555555][FONT=Tahoma]Yeah, it is true that a lot of gamers are looking for superior graphics nowadays. However, I think that it will be far too hard to resist the enormous aspects of the Revolution. And who knows? The graphics in the Revolution may be something nice to look at aswell.

There are always going to those fanboys (for all [I]three[/I] systems) that just stick with what they've had for ages, but I'm sure the Revolution will move [i]some[/i] of them (the same way the XBOX originally moved me :)).

I'd really like to hear the opinion of someone who thinks PS3 will be greater that [i]isn't[/i] a hardcore fanboy.[/FONT][/COLOR]
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[size=1]I personally think everyone should stop listening to a bunch of self-proclaimed analysts who're actually 15-year-olds in a basement somewhere.

I also think that the Nintendo Revolution will be formidable, so long as game developers put the controller design to use. I have a sinking feeling, however, that there'll be alot of growing pains for both Nintendo and the gamers.

I don't think Nintendo will rule by 2010 ... sure, it has an innovative controller and cool downloads, but they need games more than anything. Honestly, there wasn't all that much for the GameCube, and if they keep it up with all these kiddie games, they're going to permanently lose the mature audience.

PS2/PS3 is a sinking ship, IMO. They're behind the curve in all departments but one -- games. When Microsoft and Nintendo get with it (I'm assuming it'll be by 2010), Sony may as well throw in the towel. I have yet to find a PS3 supporter who's not a fanatical fanboy.

I'd personally put my money on the XBOX 360. For starters, (if I'm not mistaken) it's much more powerful than the Revolution or the PS3, which I think will eventually equate with more design freedom in games. Yes, I'm well aware that XBOX doesn't have many games worth playing, but I'm fairly certain things will look up this second time around. I think Microsoft did a superb job jumping into the pool of gaming the first time around, and if they can adapt that quickly, god knows what innovation is around the bend.[/size]
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[font=franklin gothic medium]Basically, analysts are bad at everything. I never listen to what they say - they all have different opinions and they are often basing their views on extremely shaky information. Predicting the future, especially in this industry, is a dangerous business.

But I remember thinking that everyone was seriously underestimating Nintendo DS when it was unveiled. Everyone assumed PSP would crush it and the opposite has happened.

So...I think those who underestimate Revolution are taking a big risk. When you look at these products from the perspective of the average consumer, the environment looks very different - hardcore gamers aren't very qualified to make judgements about this kind of thing, I think.

I mean, hardware power is no longer really an issue. Now we're only talking about minor differences here and there - differences that [i]most[/i] consumers will not notice or care about. We're talking about a television technology that is being forced by Sony and Microsoft and that hasn't yet reached mass penetration - and won't for several years. So the entire ballgame is very different now.

As I said, it happened with DS...and I'm willing to bet that the situation with Revolution could be similar. If Revolution ends up leading the market by 2010, I would not be at all surprised.[/font]
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[color=#4B0082]I don't pay any serious attention to predictions of success/failure when it comes to gaming systems. Most of the time, as James said, analysts are basing their predictions on scant little information, and there are so many times when they turn out to be completely wrong.

If people want to make predictions, go ahead, but they shouldn't act like some prophet come to deliver a divine revelation about which gaming system will succeed. Myself, I'm confident that the Revolution will do better than the GameCube did, but I'm not about to make sweeping claims of domination.[/color]
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I echo all the sentiments from the senior members that have posted on this thread. An Analyst to give a prediction on so big a subject with so long to go before it is either Psychic or full of crap (And considering that I don't believe in stuff like Psychics) so I would be cautiouc indeed.

BTW on your Gamecube remake Debresko; It's not going to be really difficult to top the Gamecube.
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I talked to a friend of mine that works in finance about this. He said that on *any* topic, most people don't take analysts too seriously. They just look at historical information, use a few simple economic models, and then predict the future based on those models. I doubt most video game analysts really know the industry too well.
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[quote name='Papa Smurf']I can't find the article on the Gamespot website. Shinmaru, can you give us an actual link, please? What you quoted was funny. I laughed.[/quote]

[b][url]http://www.gamespot.com/news/6146958.html[/url][/b]

There you go. :)

I'm amused that some actual decent discussion has sprung from this, considering that the article I quoted was actually an April Fools article lol. Then again, it doesn't seem as if anybody took the article (or the "analysts" lol) seriously, anyway. Maybe you're all in on the joke and I just don't know it. :p
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[color=#4B0082]I figured it was an April Fools joke. But the sad thing is, that article isn't very far off from real articles that try to predict which console will come out on top. . . . I think the only difference is that it's saying the Revolution will win.[/color]
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